Persistent Patterns of International Commerce 1
نویسندگان
چکیده
We examine a standard, gravity model of international commerce, augmented to include political as well as institutional influences on bilateral trade. Using annual data from 1980-2001, we estimate regression coefficients and residual dependencies using a hierarchy of models in each year. Rather than gauge the generalizability of these patterns via traditional measures of statistical significance such as p-values, we develop and employ a strategy to evaluate their out-of-sample predictive strength. Our analysis of recent international commerce shows that in addition to a typical gravity-model specification, political and institutional variables are important. We show that the often reported link between international conflict and bilateral trade is elusive, and inclusion of conflict in a model for trade can lead to over-fitting. Further, we show that there are substantial, persistent residual exporter-and importer-specific effects, and that ignoring such patterns in dyadic trade data results in an incomplete picture of international commerce, even in the context of a well-established framework such as the gravity model.
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